Why Flip a Coin?: The Art and Science of Good Decisions

Why Flip a Coin The Art and Science of Good Decisions Drawing on a host of research findings and scores of examples from how to win a war to how to win the office football pool H W Lewis presents a host of brain teasing problems and amusing scenarios tha

  • Title: Why Flip a Coin?: The Art and Science of Good Decisions
  • Author: H.W. Lewis
  • ISBN: 9780471296454
  • Page: 146
  • Format: Paperback
  • Drawing on a host of research findings and scores of examples from how to win a war to how to win the office football pool H W Lewis presents a host of brain teasing problems and amusing scenarios that reveal the clever ways to avoid the chaos and anxiety of decision dilemmas Inviting readers to play The Dating Game, he shows how to make a fateful decision when yDrawing on a host of research findings and scores of examples from how to win a war to how to win the office football pool H W Lewis presents a host of brain teasing problems and amusing scenarios that reveal the clever ways to avoid the chaos and anxiety of decision dilemmas Inviting readers to play The Dating Game, he shows how to make a fateful decision when you don t yet know what all your options are Telling the classic stories of The Prisoners Dilemma and The Lady or the Tiger , he shows how to weigh the intentions of hostile competitors and effectively anticipate their next moves The prize for making better decisions than your opponent may be your own survival, he says It pays to practice before the stakes get that high Like a brilliant detective uncovering the clues to a tricky mystery, Lewis unravels the systematic procedures you can use to separate the threads of options, consequences, probabilities, and preferences that will lead to the optimal choice He points out the mistakes we so often make when facing a wide variety of decision making pressures, and shows how to organize your thinking to achieve a clear state of mind when confronting any particular decision You ll be amazed as Lewis examines the hidden patterns that profoundly influence legal decisions, the conduct of war, and the course of history itself He shows how electoral systems can be manipulated to skew the choices and produce unintended results how the concept of the random walk applies to the stock market how scientific strategies can be used in gambling and how understanding standard deviation and regression can lead to better predictions in both personal and professional life.

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      Posted by:H.W. Lewis
      Published :2019-02-07T21:32:47+00:00

    About "H.W. Lewis"

    1. H.W. Lewis

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    923 thoughts on “Why Flip a Coin?: The Art and Science of Good Decisions”

    1. Interesting topic. The author is very funny at times. The start is quite good, however, out of nowhere, it turns into a political rant.


    2. قديم نوعا ما ، لكنه مفيد . يقدم نصائح جيدة لكيفية اتحاد القرار .


    3. This was a good introduction to economic concepts and game theory. Lewis uses interesting examples to explain the power and limitations of probability and other ideas.


    4. الوصف مشوق والبداية جيدة لكن بعد ذلك أصبح ممل جداً! قرأت نصفه وأكتفي بهذا القدر. اقتباسات: - ما نعنيه بالقرار الصائب هو أنه قرار يمثل أفضل ما يمكن أن نفعله في ظل ما نعرفه في ذلك الوقت، فإذا بذلنا أقصى ما في وسعنا، وكان تفكيرنا عقلانياً، فسنكون قد فعلنا كل ما هو متوقع منا، وما يق [...]


    5. In many ways, this book is both a sophisticated and somewhat intentionally brief discussion of decision-making from the perspective of a witty physicist by training who laments the fear of mathematics in the general population. Correctly, the author notes that anyone reading this book, who must have an interest in game theory and mathematics from at least the perspective of interest [1]. The author notes, in one of his many sarcastic asides, that anyone reading this book would be more sophistica [...]


    6. The author presents the material so everybody can understand it, but skips over any analytical treating of any decision making topic so that it is very difficult to actually implement any of the concepts he presents. I recommend looking for a more recent book about decision making if you're looking for one.


    7. Essentially an overview on decision making. It started with a "probability for dummies" in the first several chapters and was not very interesting. The later chapters about group decision making and government were really great. I liked it enough to finish it but I wouldn't reccomend it to anyone unless you were really curious about decision making.


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